Democracy in Palestine

Mahmoud Abbas's chronic inability to contain Palestinian violence has been demonstrated this week in both parts of the Occupied Territories. Israel has had to declare a no go zone at the northern tip of Gaza after the persistent firing of Qassam rockets in the direction of Ashkelon.

At the other end of the strip, gunmen have abducted Kate Burton, a British human rights activist, and her parents, the latest in a series of kidnappings in which the perpetrators have demanded jobs in the Palestinian security forces or the release of an imprisoned relative.

Add to these incidents the constant gun battles between the police and various militant factions, and the result is chaos, at any rate at street level. Meanwhile, in the West Bank yesterday, a suicide bomber killed an Israeli and two Palestinians at a military checkpoint near Tulkarm. Mr Abbas, running scared of divisions within his own organisation, Fatah, and of Hamas's success in recent municipal elections, is clearly incapable of controlling his own people.

That weakness has serious implications both for democracy in the areas under Palestinian authority and for relations with Israel. A man afraid of what a free election might do for Fatah and unable to keep his side of the bargain in the peace talks is failing those he governs on both counts.

However, the situation is not devoid of hope. The civic responsibilities that come with electoral success could steer Hamas off the path of violence; that possibility should not be rejected prematurely by Israel and the quartet (America, Russia, European Union, United Nations) which has drawn up a road map for peace.

Kadima, the party founded by Ariel Sharon, who pushed through the withdrawal from Gaza, is way ahead of its rivals in the opinion polls for Israel's March election. And James Wolfensohn, former head of the World Bank and now the quartet's special envoy for Gaza, has succeeded in engaging Washington to an extent not previously seen under George W Bush.

Mr Abbas on his own will not deliver. But the deepening of Palestinian democracy and the pressure of external events could offset his impotence.