Campaigning for the first Palestinian general election since 1996 began today amid a persistent argument between the leading parties over whether the vote, due to take place in three weeks time, should be delayed.
Confusion over whether Israel will allow campaigning and voting in East Jerusalem, along with lawlessness in the Gaza Strip and US and Israeli concern over the first political campaign by the militant group Hamas, have led to doubts whether the stable elections can take place on January 25.
Today Israeli police disrupted a political rally in East Jerusalem, taking away the banners of an independent candidate, Hanan Ashrawi, and arresting an aide.
The arrest surprised Veronique de Keyser, who is leading a European Union mission to observe the elections. ‘I am slightly shocked and it is not a very encouraging sign,’ she said.
Fatah, the embattled ruling party of President Mahmoud Abbas, which dominates the Palestinian Legislative Council, started its campaign with a low-key ceremony at the grave of its former leader, Yassir Arafat.
The head of the Fatah campaign, the Information Minister Nabil Shaath, said that the party expected to win 70 per cent of the seats, a prediction that exceeds recent polls that give Fatah 43 per cent of the vote.
In Gaza, a spokesman for Hamas, which suspended attacks against Israel in February, but officially still calls for the destruction of the country, told reporters: ‘There is a Palestinian crisis, and elections are a first step towards resolution. Now we can say that our people are on the threshold of a new era, an era of real change and reform.’
In the West Bank city of Nablus, Hamas candidates and about 200 supporters marched to a local cemetery to pay their respects at the graves of three Hamas militants killed in fighting with Israel in recent years.
‘We ask all Palestinians to join us to create an Islamic state. The Islamic state is on the rise,’ said Sheik Hamed Bitawi, a Hamas candidate.
Polls suggest that Hamas could win up to 30 per cent of the seats in the Palestinian parliament, which will expand to 132 seats in the elections.
Israel and the US both designate Hamas a terrorist organisation, but the party has widespread support in the Palestinian Authority, where it runs effective charities and is perceived as less corrupt than Fatah.
The start of the campaign was overshadowed by the continued doubt over whether the elections will take place this month. Mr Abbas hinted yesterday that he may delay the elections because of fears that Israel would not allow voting or rallies to take place in East Jerusalem, which was occupied by Israel in 1967 and remains the home of 200,000 Palestinians.
In the general election eight years ago and the presidential election last year, Israel allowed Palestinians in East Jerusalem to cast their ballots via postal vote.
But the Israeli Government is yet to announce whether Palestinians in the district will be able to vote in the upcoming elections. Today, a senior official in the Foreign Ministry said no decision had been made and repeated Israel's objection to the participation of Hamas in the vote.
‘The Israeli Government has not yet made any decision on the participation of the Arab residents of Jerusalem in the Palestinian elections,’ said Gideon Meir. ‘Discussions are ongoing but no decision has been made yet.'
Hamas has insisted that the elections must take place on time, whatever the restrictions set by Israel. Both Israel and the Palestinian Authority claim Jerusalem as their capital.
‘We have told them (Fatah) that postponing the election will lead to a vacuum and to a dark future,’ Ismail Haniyeh, the top Hamas candidate, said. ‘Postponing the election is not the solution. We urged them to go ahead with the election.’
According to Ian MacKinnon, Jerusalem Correspondent for The Times, the central issue of the elections will be the popularity of Hamas and whether Israel would be able to negotiate with a Palestinian Authority which has Hamas members. But the debate over voting in East Jerusalem was threatening to stall the elections before they begin.
‘There is a real concern over what happens in East Jerusalem,’ he said. ‘The status of the city is so, so important to both sides and already candidates are saying, 'How can we campaign with full fervour if we don't whether the election is really going to happen?'