Hamas's electoral success took everyone by surprise, writes Laila el-Haddad.
Just when you think you have things figured out here, they turn topsy-turvy on you.
In a matter of a few weeks, Sharon becomes comatose; the Palestinian streets go from chaos hinging on anarchy to an unsettling calm and then the Islamic group Hamas, contesting elections for the first time and thought to be lagging behind Fatah by every measure, sweeps the first parliamentary elections in 10 years, shattering the ruling party's long grip on Palestinian politics.
Welcome to Gaza.
The latest events can only be described as a political earthquake, both locally and regionally. Not only are these the first truly democratic and hotly contested elections in the Arab Middle East, but also the first time an Islamic party has come to power through the system and the popular will of the people.
To say we are entering a new stage is an understatement. Everyone knew Hamas would do well in these elections and that they would constitute a significant challenge to the ruling party. But this well?
Voters in Gaza were shocked.
‘I cast a sympathy vote for Hamas but truthfully I did not expect them to win at all. It was a surprise to everyone; no one expected this to happen,’ a young college student said.
Even Hamas members and supporters were surprised.
‘We thought we'd get at most 50% of the votes,’ one Hamas insider told me.
‘We didn't expect the security forces and the upper classes to vote for us, but it seems they might have tipped the balance. I guess we're more popular than we realised.’
How the new government will take shape and whether western positions towards it will evolve have all yet to answered. It's likely that Hamas will form a kind of national unity government, or a coalition of some sort, with a mixture of other parties. The burden of the sudden and overwhelming responsibility for running a state and answering to their constituents' long and varied list of demands may be more than they can deal with alone at the moment.
By all measures, though, the day was a success, with observers and heads of state all praising both the voter turnout, which topped 77%, and the manner in which the election took place.
Whatever their political affiliations and whatever the fallout in the coming hours, Palestinians here seem very proud of themselves, of the fact that they carried out arguably one of the only truly democratic elections in the Middle East, all the while under occupation and without a formal state.
The (former) government declared the day a public holiday, and the atmosphere was festive and excited, if tinged with anxiety.
Vehicles - trolleys, buses, even bicycles - plastered with campaign posters and party flags, and others decorated with carnations as if for a wedding, could be seen cruising throughout the Gaza Strip, blaring out celebratory music.
Inside the polling centres, indelible ink removal and stain prevention was the subject of heated discussion amongst women waiting to cast their ballots.
‘I rubbed mine with Vaseline,’ confessed one, to the oohs and aahs of the others. ‘Try clear nail polish on your entire finger,’ suggested another, handing me a phial.
Suffice to say, none of the much-heralded techniques came through for me. Now I just have a very shiny, very black, left index finger that looks horribly bruised. At least my son thinks so; he asks concernedly, ‘Wa wa?’ (‘Is it hurt?’) every time he sees it.
The moment initial exit polls began to filter in, giving Fatah a narrow but firm lead (I'm sure those pollsters are burying their heads in the ground now) in the national districts, testosterone-charged Fatah hooligans took to celebrating in the streets. They carried on until the wee hours of the morning, honking horns, flying their trademark yellow flags, and shooting wildly into the air. One bullet just nicked our family room's window.
This morning, everyone woke up to a very different reality, as news reports went from giving Fatah a majority, to a narrow win, to equal seats, to a crushing defeat.
The streets were quiet, with Hamas leaders advising supporters to stay indoors and not fall prey to any provocations from their rivals. Tension, uncertainty, and, of course, measured giddiness on the part of Hamas, were palpable in the air.
Where do we go from here?
Given the lessons of the past few weeks, your guess, I dare say, is as good as mine.