An opinion poll released on Thursday, the first survey conducted after the IDF's siege of the Jericho prison and the surrender of the alleged killers of cabinet minister Rehavam Ze'evi, showed that if elections were held now, Kadima would gain as many as 43 seats and that the Likud had passed Labor as the second-strongest party.
The Army Radio poll conducted by the Geocartographia polling firm showed the Likud on the rise, adding two seats to 16. Labor, meanwhile, slipped to 14. Kadima would gain 42-43 seats, a rise of as many as five seats over last week.
Pollster Avi Dagani said that the rise in the Likud's strength, despite the fact that the Jericho operation was carried out at the order of Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Kadima, was an outgrowth of the ‘Jericho Effect,’ the voter response to the raid.
On the question of whether the Jericho raid had been campaign-motivated, 61 percent of respondents said that the Jericho raid had been ‘vital from the national security standpoint,’ while only 23 percent thought the raid had been motivated by the elections.
The poll showed Avigdor Lieberman's Russian immigrant-based Yisrael Beiteinu rising to 11 seats in the 120-seat house.
The ultra-Orthodox Sephardi Shas was unchanged at nine seats. Also unchanged were the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism at seven seats and the leftist Meretz at four.
There has also been a weakening of the Arab parties, as large numbers of Arab voters are expected to sit out the election.
A Haaretz-Channel 10 poll conducted before the successful conclusion of the Jericho raid showed the three parties little changed from the week before, with Kadima gaining 37 seats, Labor rising by one seat to 20, and the Likud dropping from 17 to 16.
Parallel polls in Yedioth Ahronoth and Ma'ariv Thursday showed Kadima gaining 39, Labor with 19-20 seats, and the Likud with 15.
The Haaretz poll showed that ‘undecided’ voters left a total of 28 seats up for grabs, compared to 24 seats last week.
Before the release of the newest poll, which showed gains for Benjamin Netanyahu, Likud officials were apprehensive that the Tuesday IDF raid had stolen the show from the election campaign, and diverted public attention from the Likud's assault on Olmert's ‘dangerous’ withdrawal plan.
Likud sources said that party leader Netanyahu looked pressured and worried Wednesday, following the latest polls. Until Wednesday, Netanyahu has displayed confidence that the polls would change direction, and that the rise in support of the Likud would continue until election day.
‘It does not look good, especially after the Jericho operation, which stole the show and diverted the public discourse from Olmert's dangerous plan, which is the Likud's campaign,’ a Likud source said.
On the other hand, other party sources said that the campaign against the withdrawal was proving itself effective, and that the recent Likud decline in the polls had been caused by a few events that harmed the Likud this week, obliterating the positive effect of dismantling the party's central committee.
These events included the prison sentence imposed on MK Naomi Blumenthal, and Netanyahu's courtship of Yisrael Beiteinu chair Avigdor Lieberman and Shas leader Eli Yishai, both of whom rejected his request to form a right-wing preventive bloc.
Netanyahu steps up anti-pullout campaign
Netanyahu is not only sticking to his negative campaign against the withdrawal, but also is sharpening it. In an attempt to bring the public debate back to Olmert's plan, Netanyahu on Wednesday presented his political and security advisers. The team was formed about two months ago but kept secret until Wednesday. The group is comprised of former IDF chief of staff Dan Shomron, former defense minister Moshe Arens, Dr. Dori Gold, Professor Uzi Arad, and Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ami Dror. The team met Tuesday to discuss the implications of Olmert's unilateral withdrawal plan, and members warned of its inherent dangers Wednesday.
Netanyahu said the Jericho raid was ‘a good action, but it doesn't change the fact that Olmert is trying to hand over territories to Hamas. I don't know if all Israeli citizens understand that, that this will bring terror closer to our children. The team speaks of grave repercussions to personal safety. I've heard very grave things,’ he said.
Kadima sources reacted with a deriding grin, and suggested Netanyahu and his ‘mock war room’ join the mock cabinet formed by Amir Peretz of Labor and have meetings to ‘vent their frustrations.’