The latest opinion polls, published in the Al Quds newspaper today, show that the latest developments in Gaza led to shifts in public opinion towards both Hamas and Fateh at the same time, confirming the fact that both factions are losing support in Gaza, especially Hamas.
The poll was conducted by the Arab World for Research and Development (AWRAD) during the final days of fighting between the Executive Force of the Hamas-led government and the Helles clan in Gaza. The violence followed a number of explosions that took place in various locations in Gaza City, leading to the killing of 6 Palestinians, most of them from Hamas’ military wing. The subsequent fighting led to the killing of 11 Palestinians, among whom were two Hamas fighters and eight members of the Helles clan.
The poll presents a number of two-way races for a Presidential election in which potential prospective candidates would be: Mahmoud Abbas, Salaam Fayyad, Ismail Haniya and Mustafa Barghouthi.
The following scenarios show how Dr Mustafa Barghouthi‘s popularity is on the increase:
1) Mahmoud Abbas (60%) vs. Haniya (40%)
The current poll shows a change in trend compared to the May poll, in which Haniya was competitive with President Abbas. According to the current results, Abbas wins over Haniya with a 12-point difference in terms of popularity (37% for Abbas and 25% for Haniya). 38% of the respondents are either undecided or say that they will not vote. If the undecided are taken into consideration and proportionally divided among the two candidates, Abbas might receive 60% of the vote and Haniya 40%.
2) Fayyad (54%) vs. Haniya (46%)
Fayyad is more popular (32%) than Haniya (27%). In the May poll, Haniya won over Fayyad with an 11-point difference. Now, Fayyad wins over Haniya, even in Gaza. In an election, Fayyad might receive 54% of the vote and Haniya 46%.
3) Dr Mustafa Barghouthi (60%) vs Ismail Haniya (40%)
Dr Barghouthi is more popular (37%) than Haniya (25%). They received equal support during the last May poll. In an election, Dr Barghouthi might receive 60% of the votes, and Haniya 40%.
4) Dr Mustafa Barghouthi (44%) vs Mahmoud Abbas (56%)
Dr Mustafa Barghouthi is only 7 points behind President Abbas. If elections were carried out today, Abbas might receive 56% of the votes, and Dr Barghouthi 44% of the votes.
5) Dr Mustafa Barghouthi (59%) vs Salam Fayyad (41%)
Dr Mustafa Barghouthi is more popular (33%) than Prime Minister Fayyad (23%). Dr Barghouthi receives more votes in Gaza (38%) than in the West Bank (30%). If elections were held today, Dr Barghouthi might receive 59% of the votes and Prime Minister Fayyad 41%.
The Poll also surveyed the opinions towards a Palestinian Legislative Council election.
If PLC elections took place today, which of the following groups/lists would you vote for?
|
|
Total (WB&G) |
|
|
|
Al Badil |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
Independent |
3.1 |
3.3 |
2.7 |
|
Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa |
2.2 |
2.7 |
1.3 |
|
Martyr Abu Al Abbas |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
|
Freedom and Social Justice |
0.9 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
|
Change and Reform (Hamas) |
15.3 |
12.1 |
20.5 |
|
National Coalition for Justice and Democracy |
0.2 |
0.3 |
.0 |
|
|
1.0 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
|
Freedom and |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
|
Social Justice |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
Fateh |
33.1 |
31.6 |
35.7 |
|
Islamic Jihad |
0.8 |
0.4 |
1.3 |
|
Hizb Tahreer |
0.6 |
0.9 |
.0 |
|
I have not decided yet |
17.0 |
20.0 |
12.1 |
|
Will not vote |
24.2 |
24.8 |
23.2 |
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For further information and to access the full report, please go to the AWRAD website:
AWRAD – Arab World for Research and Development.
Results of an Opinion Poll: Hamas and the Truce, the Government, Security Campaigns, The Peace Process and Elections. Publication Date: 18 August 2008.
http://www.awrad.org/pdfs/Poll%207%20Final%20Report_English.pdf